GINC 250 / Corruption & kleptocracy

Trend · rank 62 of 250

Corruption & kleptocracy

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionspolitics

Capture of public office and public money for private gain, which hollows out capability that exists on paper.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank62 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 44
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank52.6 · rank 39
Eigenvector6.2
Betweenness14.5
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
5Very highRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
4HighOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
4HighIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
4HighExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
4HighCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160