GINC 250 / Civil unrest

Trend · rank 59 of 250

Civil unrest

Governance & IntegritySociety & Culturepoliticsconflict

Rising protest and social instability driven by inequality, polarisation and cost-of-living pressure.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank59 of 250
Sensitivity26.4 · rank 17
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank39.2 · rank 109
Eigenvector5.0
Betweenness13.3
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighPolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
4HighTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
4HighState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
4HighTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184