GINC 250 / Organised crime & illicit economies

Trend · rank 181 of 250

Organised crime & illicit economies

National SecuritySociety & Cultureconflictinstitutions

Trafficking, fraud and illicit finance at industrial scale, corroding institutions and financing violence.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank181 of 250
Sensitivity7.6 · rank 195
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank28.7 · rank 176
Eigenvector9.8
Betweenness19.8
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite18.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177