GINC 250 / Cyber insecurity

Trend · rank 102 of 250

Cyber insecurity

National SecurityTechnology & Financialscyberconflict

State, criminal and politically motivated attack on data, systems and critical infrastructure, increasingly AI-enabled, and the defence against it.

Broken out into Ransomware & cybercrime

Sensitivity and network position

Rank102 of 250
Sensitivity18.8 · rank 52
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank30.3 · rank 164
Eigenvector10.9
Betweenness21.8
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
5Very highEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
4HighRansomware & cybercrimeTechnology & Financials210
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateCritical infrastructure protectionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation131
3ModerateGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181
3ModerateInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207