GINC 250 / GNSS & timing dependence

Trend · rank 171 of 250

GNSS & timing dependence

Strategic InfrastructureTechnology & Financialsspace geocyber

Reliance of transport, telecoms, finance and power on satellite positioning and timing signals that can be jammed or spoofed.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank171 of 250
Sensitivity9.0 · rank 182
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank33.6 · rank 146
Eigenvector2.5
Betweenness17.3
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite19.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighCritical infrastructure protectionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation131
4HighInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207
3ModerateCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateSubsea cable & pipeline vulnerabilityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation126
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateOpen-source intelligence & transparencyTechnology & Financials204
3ModerateRansomware & cybercrimeTechnology & Financials210
3ModerateGeospatial technologyTechnology & Financials220
3ModerateSatellite mega-constellationsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation229
3ModerateSpace economyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation232