GINC 250 / Ransomware & cybercrime

Trend · rank 210 of 250

Ransomware & cybercrime

National SecurityTechnology & Financialscyber

Criminal intrusion for extortion against hospitals, utilities and governments, often tolerated by the states that host it.

Broken out from Cyber insecurity

Sensitivity and network position

Rank210 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 142
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank19.3 · rank 222
Eigenvector4.0
Betweenness0.0
Links7 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite14.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateCritical infrastructure protectionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation131
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
3ModerateGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207