GINC 250 / Critical infrastructure protection

Trend · rank 131 of 250

Critical infrastructure protection

Strategic InfrastructureIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationresiliencecyber

The security and redundancy of energy, water, transport, telecoms and control systems against attack, accident and hazard.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank131 of 250
Sensitivity16.0 · rank 76
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank30.9 · rank 160
Eigenvector1.4
Betweenness19.2
Links11 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
6CriticalCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107
4HighGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModerateCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateSubsea cable & pipeline vulnerabilityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation126
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateCash decline & payment dependenceTechnology & Financials188
3ModerateBuilding codes & resilient constructionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation206
3ModerateInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207
3ModerateRansomware & cybercrimeTechnology & Financials210