GINC 250 / Cash decline & payment dependence

Trend · rank 188 of 250

Cash decline & payment dependence

Financial StrengthTechnology & Financialsdigital financeresilience

The retreat of cash and branches, leaving households and shops with no way to pay when power or networks fail.

Broken out from Digital payments & FinTech

Sensitivity and network position

Rank188 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 155
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank20.0 · rank 220
Eigenvector1.0
Betweenness20.9
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite17.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highDigital payments & FinTechTechnology & Financials192
4HighStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107
3ModerateCritical infrastructure protectionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation131
3ModerateCrypto-assets & tokenisationTechnology & Financials228