GINC 250 / Digital payments & FinTech

Trend · rank 192 of 250

Digital payments & FinTech

Financial StrengthTechnology & Financialsdigital finance

The shift from cash to digital rails, embedded finance and challenger platforms across payments, lending and wealth.

Broken out into Cash decline & payment dependence

Sensitivity and network position

Rank192 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 106
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank23.3 · rank 210
Eigenvector1.7
Betweenness3.1
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite17.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
1Very lowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
5Very highCash decline & payment dependenceTechnology & Financials188
5Very highCrypto-assets & tokenisationTechnology & Financials228
4HighDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195