GINC 250 / Stablecoins & digital currencies

Trend · rank 86 of 250

Stablecoins & digital currencies

Financial StrengthTechnology & Financialsdigital financedebt finance

Private dollar tokens growing into a parallel payment and funding system, and state-issued digital money as a backstop and a way around others' payment rails.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank86 of 250
Sensitivity13.2 · rank 121
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank43.3 · rank 84
Eigenvector11.2
Betweenness32.3
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite29.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
5Very highDigital payments & FinTechTechnology & Financials192
5Very highCrypto-assets & tokenisationTechnology & Financials228
4HighDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
4HighCash decline & payment dependenceTechnology & Financials188
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215