GINC 250 / China's economic slowdown

Trend · rank 9 of 250

China's economic slowdown

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financegeoeconomics

Property overhang, deflation and weak demand in China, exported as overcapacity and lower commodity demand.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank9 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 46
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank62.1 · rank 18
Eigenvector48.0
Betweenness79.3
Links26 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite52.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
5Very highCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
4HighForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
4HighDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215
3ModerateSustainable financeTechnology & Financials226