GINC 250 / Foreign direct investment slowdown

Trend · rank 52 of 250

Foreign direct investment slowdown

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecrafttradedebt finance

Falling cross-border investment, especially into developing economies, as risk and screening rise.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank52 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 89
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank48.7 · rank 56
Eigenvector49.9
Betweenness18.0
Links21 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite33.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
4HighRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121