GINC 250 / Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs

Trend · rank 13 of 250

Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecrafttradegeoeconomics

Trade and investment redirected towards allies and neighbours, with supply chains rebuilt inside blocs.

Broken out from Deglobalisation

Sensitivity and network position

Rank13 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 48
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank80.3 · rank 6
Eigenvector90.6
Betweenness19.5
Links33 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite50.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
5Very highExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
5Very highEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
5Very highDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
5Very highRegional trade agreementsGeoeconomics & Statecraft139
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
4HighTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
4HighInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
4HighForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateReshoring & localised manufacturingIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation75
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateDigital & services tradeTechnology & Financials178