GINC 250 / Energy import dependence

Trend · rank 29 of 250

Energy import dependence

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecraftfossilgeoeconomics

Reliance on imported oil, gas and LNG through a small number of suppliers and sea routes.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank29 of 250
Sensitivity22.2 · rank 32
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank45.5 · rank 70
Eigenvector44.5
Betweenness25.8
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite38.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
6CriticalEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153