GINC 250 / Fuel logistics & refining capacity

Trend · rank 153 of 250

Fuel logistics & refining capacity

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentfossillogistics

Refineries, storage, pipelines and distribution, and how many days of fuel reach users when imports stop.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank153 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 104
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank28.8 · rank 175
Eigenvector3.3
Betweenness15.3
Links9 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
3ModerateStrategic stockpiles & reservesGeoeconomics & Statecraft71
3ModerateDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197