GINC 250 / Distributed power

Trend · rank 84 of 250

Distributed power

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentpowerclean energy

Decentralised generation such as rooftop solar, microgrids and behind-the-meter assets reshaping the utility model.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank84 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 138
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank49.9 · rank 51
Eigenvector0.9
Betweenness34.3
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite29.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
5Very highBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
5Very highAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
4HighElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
4HighData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
4HighGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
4HighEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
4HighSolar & storage cost collapseEnergy & Environment186
4HighDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
4HighEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213
3ModerateFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateHydrogen & low-carbon fuelsEnergy & Environment185
3ModerateElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202
3ModerateFusion energyEnergy & Environment235