GINC 250 / Solar & storage cost collapse

Trend · rank 186 of 250

Solar & storage cost collapse

Production & InnovationEnergy & Environmentclean energy

Solar modules and batteries falling in cost year after year until round-the-clock clean power undercuts fossil fuel.

Broken out from Renewable energy

Sensitivity and network position

Rank186 of 250
Sensitivity11.8 · rank 145
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank27.1 · rank 187
Eigenvector0.3
Betweenness8.7
Links9 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite17.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
5Very highHydrogen & low-carbon fuelsEnergy & Environment185
4HighRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
4HighDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
4HighAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
4HighEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213
4HighCarbon capture, utilisation & storageEnergy & Environment216
4HighFusion energyEnergy & Environment235
3ModerateElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202