GINC 250 / Advanced nuclear

Trend · rank 179 of 250

Advanced nuclear

Critical TechnologyEnergy & Environmentclean energypower

Small modular reactors and next-generation fission, with fusion research behind them, as firm low-carbon power.

Broken out into Fusion energy

Sensitivity and network position

Rank179 of 250
Sensitivity9.7 · rank 170
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank37.8 · rank 121
Eigenvector0.4
Betweenness5.7
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite19.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213
5Very highRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
5Very highDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
5Very highBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
5Very highFusion energyEnergy & Environment235
4HighGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighSolar & storage cost collapseEnergy & Environment186
3ModerateElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
3ModerateData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
3ModerateLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
3ModerateEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
3ModerateHydrogen & low-carbon fuelsEnergy & Environment185
3ModerateDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
3ModerateElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202