GINC 250 / Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels

Trend · rank 185 of 250

Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels

Production & InnovationEnergy & Environmentclean energy

Low-carbon hydrogen, e-fuels, ammonia and advanced biofuels for the uses that electricity cannot reach.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank185 of 250
Sensitivity8.3 · rank 192
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank24.5 · rank 204
Eigenvector0.3
Betweenness25.1
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite18.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
1Very lowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highSolar & storage cost collapseEnergy & Environment186
4HighBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
4HighFusion energyEnergy & Environment235
3ModerateRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
3ModerateDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
3ModerateAgricultural technologyConsumer, Food & Retail138
3ModerateAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
3ModerateElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202
3ModerateEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213
3ModerateCarbon capture, utilisation & storageEnergy & Environment216