GINC 250 / Renewable energy

Trend · rank 55 of 250

Renewable energy

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentclean energypower

Wind, solar and other renewables scaling as the backbone of decarbonising, increasingly AI-hungry power systems.

Broken out into Solar & storage cost collapse

Sensitivity and network position

Rank55 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 108
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank51.3 · rank 44
Eigenvector0.8
Betweenness41.5
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite33.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
5Very highBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
5Very highAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
5Very highEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213
4HighElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
4HighGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
4HighEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
4HighSolar & storage cost collapseEnergy & Environment186
4HighDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
4HighElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202
3ModerateData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
3ModerateFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModerateHydrogen & low-carbon fuelsEnergy & Environment185
3ModerateFusion energyEnergy & Environment235
3ModerateRail & mass transit investmentIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation248