GINC 250 / Electrification of heat, transport & industry

Trend · rank 30 of 250

Electrification of heat, transport & industry

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentpowerclimate

Heating, cooling, transport and industry moving onto the grid, raising dependence on electricity for every essential service.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank30 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 69
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank50.4 · rank 48
Eigenvector0.5
Betweenness58.6
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite38.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
4HighRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
4HighDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
4HighData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
4HighEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
4HighDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
3ModerateClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModerateDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
3ModerateAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
3ModerateSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
3ModerateElectric transportIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation202
3ModerateEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213