GINC 250 / Climate change & physical risk

Trend · rank 22 of 250

Climate change & physical risk

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentclimate

Rising frequency and severity of floods, heat, drought, fire and storms as the climate warms.

Broken out into Heat stress & labour productivity

Sensitivity and network position

Rank22 of 250
Sensitivity28.5 · rank 12
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank49.8 · rank 52
Eigenvector0.5
Betweenness35.3
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite41.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
6CriticalFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
5Very highAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
5Very highEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
4HighElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
4HighClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
4HighEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
4HighDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
4HighSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
4HighHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateWater stress & transboundary waterEnergy & Environment156
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateWater technology & desalinationEnergy & Environment200
3ModerateBiodiversity & nature lossEnergy & Environment212