GINC 250 / Climate finance & loss and damage

Trend · rank 79 of 250

Climate finance & loss and damage

Financial StrengthEnergy & Environmentclimatedebt finance

Who pays for transition, adaptation and climate damage in poorer nations, and how little of what is pledged arrives.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank79 of 250
Sensitivity13.2 · rank 122
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank36.6 · rank 129
Eigenvector3.3
Betweenness50.2
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite30.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
4HighCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
4HighClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
4HighInsurance retreat & insurabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft214
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateEarth system tipping pointsEnergy & Environment105
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
3ModerateSustainable financeTechnology & Financials226