GINC 250 / Insurance retreat & insurability

Trend · rank 214 of 250

Insurance retreat & insurability

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financeclimate

Insurers withdrawing from exposed regions and routes, risk concentrating in a few underwriters, and parametric and usage-based cover filling some of the gap.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank214 of 250
Sensitivity13.2 · rank 120
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank15.3 · rank 230
Eigenvector1.6
Betweenness0.2
Links4 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite13.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
4HighDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72