GINC 250 / Disaster risk finance

Trend · rank 168 of 250

Disaster risk finance

Financial StrengthEnergy & Environmentclimatedebt finance

Catastrophe bonds, contingent credit and insurance pools arranged before a disaster, so that money moves in days.

Broken out from Climate adaptation & resilience

Sensitivity and network position

Rank168 of 250
Sensitivity9.0 · rank 184
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank32.5 · rank 149
Eigenvector2.8
Betweenness20.1
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite20.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
4HighInsurance retreat & insurabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft214
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateClimate change & physical riskEnergy & Environment22
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateEarly-warning systemsEnergy & Environment80
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateClimate adaptation & resilienceEnergy & Environment123
3ModerateDams, reservoirs & flood defenceEnergy & Environment172
3ModerateSeismic & geophysical hazardEnergy & Environment180
3ModerateHeat stress & labour productivityEnergy & Environment196
3ModerateSustainable financeTechnology & Financials226