GINC 250 / Sustainable finance

Trend · rank 226 of 250

Sustainable finance

Financial StrengthTechnology & Financialsdebt financecarbon

Capital flows and financial products directed at environmental outcomes, from green bonds to transition and sustainability-linked finance.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank226 of 250
Sensitivity4.9 · rank 228
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank17.6 · rank 226
Eigenvector4.4
Betweenness15.6
Links8 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite12.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateCarbon capture, utilisation & storageEnergy & Environment216