GINC 250 / Non-bank finance growth

Trend · rank 159 of 250

Non-bank finance growth

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt finance

Private credit, hedge funds and other lenders outside the banking perimeter taking a growing share of credit with less supervision.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank159 of 250
Sensitivity8.3 · rank 190
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank44.0 · rank 79
Eigenvector13.8
Betweenness6.3
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
5Very highBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
5Very highCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
4HighCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateSustainable financeTechnology & Financials226