GINC 250 / Inflation & cost of living

Trend · rank 72 of 250

Inflation & cost of living

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financeinequality

Persistent price pressure and the squeeze on household budgets, which constrain central banks and feed political discontent.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank72 of 250
Sensitivity24.3 · rank 23
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank42.5 · rank 93
Eigenvector10.0
Betweenness6.2
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite31.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
4HighHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
4HighFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateInsurance retreat & insurabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft214
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215