GINC 250 / Remittance dependence

Trend · rank 130 of 250

Remittance dependence

Financial StrengthSociety & Culturedebt financedemography

Economies whose foreign exchange and household incomes rest on money sent home by workers abroad.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank130 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 117
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank38.7 · rank 114
Eigenvector9.7
Betweenness10.6
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighPension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateCrypto-assets & tokenisationTechnology & Financials228