GINC 250 / Energy poverty

Trend · rank 176 of 250

Energy poverty

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentpowerinequality

Closing the access gap for populations lacking reliable, affordable energy, including off-grid and mini-grid solutions.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank176 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 96
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank31.0 · rank 159
Eigenvector0.4
Betweenness0.0
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite19.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
4HighRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
4HighDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
4HighGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
3ModerateData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModerateBatteries & energy storageEnergy & Environment111
3ModerateLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModerateAdvanced nuclearEnergy & Environment179
3ModerateEnhanced geothermalEnergy & Environment213