GINC 250 / Space weather exposure

Trend · rank 170 of 250

Space weather exposure

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentspace geopower

The vulnerability of grids, satellites and navigation to a severe solar storm.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank170 of 250
Sensitivity4.9 · rank 231
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank32.5 · rank 151
Eigenvector1.5
Betweenness34.6
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite20.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighGrid enhancementEnergy & Environment108
4HighInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
4HighLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164
3ModerateElectrification of heat, transport & industryEnergy & Environment30
3ModerateRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
3ModerateDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107
3ModerateGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateEnergy povertyEnergy & Environment176
3ModerateDemand flexibility & smart meteringEnergy & Environment197
3ModerateInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207
3ModerateSatellite mega-constellationsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation229
3ModerateSpace economyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation232