GINC 250 / Space economy

Trend · rank 232 of 250

Space economy

Critical TechnologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationspace geo

Commercial launch, satellites, Earth observation and in-orbit services as the cost of access to space falls.

Broken out into Militarisation of space · Satellite mega-constellations

Sensitivity and network position

Rank232 of 250
Sensitivity4.9 · rank 230
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank16.6 · rank 227
Eigenvector1.7
Betweenness6.1
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite9.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
1Very lowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highSatellite mega-constellationsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation229
4HighMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
4HighGeospatial technologyTechnology & Financials220
3ModerateSpace weather exposureEnergy & Environment170
3ModerateGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173