GINC 250 / Fossil fuel resurgence

Trend · rank 95 of 250

Fossil fuel resurgence

Strategic InfrastructureEnergy & Environmentfossil

Renewed investment in oil, gas and coal where energy security and AI-driven power demand outweigh transition pressure.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank95 of 250
Sensitivity17.4 · rank 59
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank27.4 · rank 185
Eigenvector5.6
Betweenness39.4
Links8 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite28.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153
4HighEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
4HighPeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateCommodity price volatilityEnergy & Environment31
3ModerateRenewable energyEnergy & Environment55
3ModerateDistributed powerEnergy & Environment84
3ModerateLoss of firm & black-start capacityEnergy & Environment164