GINC 250 / Commodity price volatility

Trend · rank 31 of 250

Commodity price volatility

Trade & InvestmentEnergy & Environmenttradefossil

Sharp swings in energy, food and metal prices, and the exposure of exporters and importers alike.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank31 of 250
Sensitivity29.2 · rank 9
Breadth7 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank43.5 · rank 83
Eigenvector27.6
Betweenness12.2
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite37.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
5Very highFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighBreadbasket & food export concentrationEnergy & Environment94
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateFertiliser dependenceConsumer, Food & Retail64
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateFossil fuel resurgenceEnergy & Environment95
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121