GINC 250 / Port & shipping concentration

Trend · rank 124 of 250

Port & shipping concentration

Strategic InfrastructureIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationlogisticstrade

A few carriers, alliances and hub ports handling most world trade, so that one disruption spreads widely.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank124 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 93
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank30.1 · rank 166
Eigenvector18.7
Betweenness17.3
Links10 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highTrade, shipping & logistics digitalisationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation45
4HighJust-in-time logistics & thin inventoriesGeoeconomics & Statecraft54
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateStrategic stockpiles & reservesGeoeconomics & Statecraft71
3ModerateSubsea cable & pipeline vulnerabilityIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation126
3ModerateFuel logistics & refining capacityEnergy & Environment153