GINC 250 / Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability

Trend · rank 126 of 250

Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability

Strategic InfrastructureIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationconnectivityconflict

The exposure of seabed cables and pipelines to sabotage and accident, and the thin capacity to repair them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank126 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 97
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank29.9 · rank 170
Eigenvector6.6
Betweenness25.6
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateTelecom network resilienceTechnology & Financials107
3ModerateInfrastructure ageingEnergy & Environment109
3ModeratePort & shipping concentrationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation124
3ModerateCritical infrastructure protectionIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation131
3ModerateGNSS & timing dependenceTechnology & Financials171
3ModerateSmart cities & buildingsSociety & Culture174
3ModerateInternet of ThingsTechnology & Financials207
3ModerateNext-generation mobile networksTechnology & Financials221
3ModerateSatellite mega-constellationsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation229