GINC 250 / Alliance realignment & burden-shifting

Trend · rank 16 of 250

Alliance realignment & burden-shifting

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftdefencegeoeconomics

Security guarantees becoming conditional, allies asked to pay and do more, and new groupings forming around specific interests.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank16 of 250
Sensitivity19.4 · rank 45
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank66.6 · rank 13
Eigenvector69.0
Betweenness35.9
Links28 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite47.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
4HighNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
4HighConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115