GINC 250 / Armed conflict at post-war highs

Trend · rank 20 of 250

Armed conflict at post-war highs

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflict

More active state-based conflicts than at any time since 1945, with wider spillovers to trade, energy and displacement.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank20 of 250
Sensitivity27.8 · rank 14
Breadth6 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank57.7 · rank 26
Eigenvector48.2
Betweenness17.7
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite44.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
5Very highMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
1Very lowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
4HighHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
4HighMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
4HighIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
4HighMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
4HighNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
4HighState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181