GINC 250 / Russia–NATO confrontation

Trend · rank 36 of 250

Russia–NATO confrontation

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflictdefence

The war in Ukraine and the wider contest along NATO's eastern flank, from sabotage to nuclear signalling.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank36 of 250
Sensitivity20.8 · rank 34
Breadth4 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank58.2 · rank 25
Eigenvector52.9
Betweenness1.7
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite37.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
4HighEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
5Very highPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
5Very highMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
5Very highNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
4HighMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145