GINC 250 / Terrorism & violent extremism

Trend · rank 99 of 250

Terrorism & violent extremism

National SecuritySociety & Cultureconflictpolitics

Attacks by non-state groups and radicalised individuals, and the online networks that recruit them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank99 of 250
Sensitivity12.5 · rank 137
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank42.7 · rank 90
Eigenvector26.3
Betweenness19.3
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
4HighPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
4HighCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
4HighTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModerateRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181