GINC 250 / Religious & identity nationalism

Trend · rank 140 of 250

Religious & identity nationalism

Information & InfluenceSociety & Culturepoliticsinformation

Politics organised around faith, ethnicity and nation, at home and as an instrument of influence abroad.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank140 of 250
Sensitivity10.4 · rank 169
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank39.8 · rank 105
Eigenvector8.3
Betweenness15.0
Links16 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
4HighForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
4HighMisinformation & disinformationSociety & Culture65
4HighConspiracy movements & science denialSociety & Culture149
4HighTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateSynthetic media & deepfakesSociety & Culture150
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModeratePlatform power over public discourseSociety & Culture167
3ModerateCensorship & surveillanceSociety & Culture189