GINC 250 / Soft power & cultural influence

Trend · rank 85 of 250

Soft power & cultural influence

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsinformation

Competition for attraction through media, culture, education and brands, and state investment in it.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank85 of 250
Sensitivity6.3 · rank 214
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank45.6 · rank 68
Eigenvector50.7
Betweenness33.6
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite29.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
4HighGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateMisinformation & disinformationSociety & Culture65
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateOpen-source intelligence & transparencyTechnology & Financials204