GINC 250 / Taiwan Strait tension

Trend · rank 10 of 250

Taiwan Strait tension

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflictgeoeconomics

Military pressure around Taiwan and the dependence of the world's advanced chip supply on one island.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank10 of 250
Sensitivity25.0 · rank 20
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank73.4 · rank 11
Eigenvector83.7
Betweenness24.6
Links32 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite52.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
6CriticalMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
5Very highArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145