GINC 250 / Rearmament & defence spending

Trend · rank 37 of 250

Rearmament & defence spending

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftdefenceconflict

Rising military budgets and stockpile rebuilding across NATO, Asia and the Gulf, competing with other public spending.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank37 of 250
Sensitivity17.4 · rank 60
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank59.7 · rank 21
Eigenvector56.1
Betweenness6.9
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite36.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
4HighHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
5Very highRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
5Very highPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
5Very highMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
5Very highDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
4HighIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
4HighArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
4HighConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145