GINC 250 / Nuclear & WMD proliferation

Trend · rank 60 of 250

Nuclear & WMD proliferation

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflictdefence

More states and actors seeking nuclear, chemical or biological weapons as guarantees weaken and thresholds blur.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank60 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 82
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank55.9 · rank 28
Eigenvector53.2
Betweenness0.8
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
5Very highRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
5Very highPrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
5Very highMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
4HighArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
4HighArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateDrone & autonomous warfareIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation98
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
3ModerateConscription & reserve mobilisationGeoeconomics & Statecraft199