GINC 250 / Espionage & insider threat

Trend · rank 145 of 250

Espionage & insider threat

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftconflictcyber

Theft of secrets and technology by rival states, through people as well as networks.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank145 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 158
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank35.6 · rank 135
Eigenvector29.9
Betweenness5.1
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
5Very highCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
4HighGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
3ModerateRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
3ModerateRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
3ModerateNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
3ModerateArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
3ModerateMilitarisation of spaceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation104
3ModerateDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateRansomware & cybercrimeTechnology & Financials210