GINC 250 / Great-power competition

Trend · rank 1 of 250

Great-power competition

National SecurityGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsconflict

Rivalry between the United States and China, and between Russia and the West, across trade, technology, security and standards.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank1 of 250
Sensitivity40.3 · rank 2
Breadth7 of 24 scenarios High or above, 3 Critical
PageRank100.0 · rank 1
Eigenvector99.4
Betweenness100.0
Links41 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite86.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
6CriticalGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
5Very highHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
4HighMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
5Very highArctic & polar competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft87
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighAlliance realignment & burden-shiftingGeoeconomics & Statecraft16
4HighArmed conflict at post-war highsGeoeconomics & Statecraft20
4HighRussia–NATO confrontationGeoeconomics & Statecraft36
4HighRearmament & defence spendingGeoeconomics & Statecraft37
4HighIndo-Pacific maritime disputesGeoeconomics & Statecraft42
4HighNuclear & WMD proliferationGeoeconomics & Statecraft60
4HighEspionage & insider threatGeoeconomics & Statecraft145
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateHybrid & grey-zone warfareGeoeconomics & Statecraft21
3ModerateSanctions evasion & shadow fleetsGeoeconomics & Statecraft24
3ModerateMiddle East instabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft26
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint dependenceIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation32
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModeratePrivate military & proxy forcesGeoeconomics & Statecraft38
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateMissile & long-range strike proliferationIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation49
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDefence industrial base & munitionsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation93
3ModerateTerrorism & violent extremismSociety & Culture99
3ModerateCyber insecurityTechnology & Financials102
3ModerateDefence technologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation110
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateState fragility & intrastate violenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft116
3ModerateArms control erosionGeoeconomics & Statecraft122