GINC 250 / Sovereign wealth & state capital

Trend · rank 41 of 250

Sovereign wealth & state capital

Trade & InvestmentGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsdebt finance

State-owned funds and enterprises as investors and owners abroad, and state direction of capital at home.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank41 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 102
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank53.7 · rank 34
Eigenvector57.4
Betweenness16.6
Links25 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
4HighMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
4HighCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateEnergy import dependenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft29
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147