GINC 250 / Development finance as influence

Trend · rank 90 of 250

Development finance as influence

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsdebt finance

Loans, infrastructure and aid used to win alignment, from the Belt and Road to Western and Gulf counter-offers.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank90 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 86
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank43.1 · rank 87
Eigenvector35.5
Betweenness11.4
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite29.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
4HighDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115