GINC 250 / Global South coalitions

Trend · rank 67 of 250

Global South coalitions

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomics

BRICS enlargement and other groupings giving developing nations collective weight on finance, trade and climate.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank67 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 101
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank52.8 · rank 37
Eigenvector57.7
Betweenness3.7
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
4HighWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
4HighSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
4HighDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
4HighDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateAfrica's demographic & economic riseSociety & Culture68
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117